India may have 200 million COVID-19 cases by year-end

Ramanan Laxminarayan, the director of the Washington-based Center for Disease Dynamics, in an interview with The Wire, proposed the possibility of India having two hundred million cases by September and Jayaprakash Muliyil, a renowned Indian epidemiologist agreed with the prediction made by Mr. Laxminarayan further added that almost half of the nation will ultimately be infected by the virus.

The COVID-19 outbreak in India has unfolded to all states and union territories within much less than five months, infecting greater than eight lakh people and the curve doesn’t seem to be flattening.

India reported 28,701 new cases in a day — the largest increase so far in daily cases — bringing its total number of Covid-19 cases to 879,466 as of yet. The death toll in the nation stands at 23,187. The number of cases in the past 24 hours in Maharashtra grew by 7,827, whereas Delhi’s tale has risen by 1,573. The caseloads of Karnataka have risen at the country’s quickest rate.
Country-wise, the most affected remains in the USA. India has reported more than 50,000 cases in a day, and now has 3,413,936 cases of coronavirus and 137,782 deaths. Brazil has 1,866,176 cases and 70,524 deaths, while with 879,466 cases and 22,144 deaths, India is the third-worst hit.

The COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID‐19 pandemic also called the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing worldwide coronavirus ailment pandemic 2019 (COVID‐19), caused through intense acute breathing syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). The epidemic was declared a public health emergency of international significance by the World Health Organization on 30 January 2020 and a pandemic on 11 March. As of 11 July 2020, more than 12.5 million COVID‐19 cases were registered in more than 188 countries and territories, resulting in more than 560,000 deaths; more than 6.89 million people recovered.

With no cure or vaccine discovered as of yet, the numbers are expected to keep surging and the worst-hit nations are the ones with the most population i.e. The USA, India, Brazil, Russia, etc. Although a lot of smaller countries have managed to control the spread of the virus. New Zealand at one point was even able to eliminate the virus in its entirety from the country.

India in the pandemic

As prevention, on 22 March, India determined a 14-hour voluntary public curfew at the instance of the high minister Narendra Modi. It was observed via compulsory lockdowns in COVID-19 hotspots and all number one cities. Further, on 24 March, the Prime Minister ordered a countrywide lockdown for 21 days, affecting the complete 1.3 billion populace of India. Furthermore, the Prime minister extended the lockdown till the 17th of May which comprised multiple extensions and a few relaxations. The government started ‘opening up’ cities from the 1st of June based on the number of cases in the respective places.

However, even after all the lockdowns and preventive measures taken up the Government; India is still in the top three most affected nations by the pandemic, the reasons for which might be:

• India left out the warning symptoms whilst the primary few cases surfaced in Kerala and did not screen all the international passengers up until March 6.

• ICMR did not check humans with COVID-19 symptoms without a recent travel record and a recognized contact that might have transmitted them the virus, up till March 20.

• The government’s authentic line for the public as past due as March 13 became that the corona virus became no longer a fitness emergency.

• Social distancing as a technique of preserving the virus at bay becomes first officially flagged by using Prime Minister Narendra Modi while he spoke to the state on March 19 in order to name for a one-day ‘Janata Curfew’ for March 22.

• The first countrywide containment measure in the form of a national lockdown become handiest introduced on March 25, 3 months after the primary COVID-19 case becomes stated and two months after the WHO declared the outbreak a public fitness emergency of global concern.


In some, the official strategy changed into an instance of ‘too little, too late’ as hidden infections had been already spreading in all parts of the country, accompanied then by ‘too much, too soon’ and not enough planning.

Till a cure is not available for the virus, India needs to take a lot of preventive measures in order to contain the virus otherwise the health care sector might not be able to support the huge number of infected citizens. India needs to:

• Increase the testing capacity with the aid of harnessing the potential of the private region for laboratories, check kits, and supplies and increasing the density and capacity of test sites and laboratories.

• Maintain essential critical health services and disease programs to keep away from a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases, infectious diseases, and chronic illnesses

Enforce practical social distancing, powerful quarantine procedures, obligatory mask-wearing, and hand hygiene habits, alongside with improved detection, containment, and mitigation.

• Introduce and make certain national information privacy laws to improve India’s health emergency reaction and guard against facts privateness concerns.

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